Investment market update: August 2023

Category: News
A high street in the UK.

Globally, signs suggest the pace of inflation is slowing. However, businesses in some sectors are struggling and weighing on economies. Read on to discover some of the factors that affected investment markets in August 2023. 

According to a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from JP Morgan, reports indicated that manufacturing in Asia, Europe and the US is contracting. New orders declined for the 13th consecutive month, which could have medium-term consequences for investment markets. 

When reviewing your investments, remember to take a long-term view. Volatility is part of investing and, usually, sticking to your long-term strategy makes sense, rather than reacting to short-term movements.

If you have any questions about your investments or the current climate, please contact us. 

UK

The UK economy beat forecasts to post growth of 0.2% between April and June 2023 to avoid stagnation. 

Yet, some institutions, including consulting firm RSM UK, warn the UK could still slip into a recession next year. This concern is compounded by PMI data showing contraction in the manufacturing sector. 

While slowing, the rate of inflation remains stubbornly high. It was 6.8% in the 12 months to July 2023.

Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey said he expects inflation to fall to 5% in October. However, he added that high interest rates are likely to remain for at least two years. 

The inflation figures led to the BoE increasing its base interest rate again. As of August 2023, it is 5.25% – a 15-year high. 

The decision was met with criticism. Think tank IPPR warned the central bank was “tightening the screws too much, given the UK economy is weakening, the labour market is slow, and productivity is falling”. 

The rising interest rates are placing particular pressure on mortgage holders. 

At the start of the month, the interest rate of an average two-year fixed mortgage deal exceeded 6.5%, although rates started to fall by the end of August. 

Unsurprisingly, rising interest rates have led to house prices falling. According to Nationwide, property prices fell by 3.8% in July 2023 when compared to a year earlier. 

UK Finance also reported 7% more homeowners are now behind on their mortgage repayments when compared to the first quarter of 2023. The figures suggest landlords are struggling the most – the number of buy-to-let mortgages in arrears jumped by 28%. 

As a result, house prices could fall further. Estate agent Knight Frank predicts prices will fall by 5% this year. 

Demonstrating the difficulties businesses are facing too, beloved high street store Wilko fell into administration after rescue talks failed. It places more than 12,000 jobs at risk across the UK. 

Europe

The eurozone is facing similar challenges to the UK.

PMI data shows manufacturing firms have cut prices at the quickest pace since 2009. In addition, new orders, employment, and production all fell in July at a faster pace than the previous month. 

As the largest economy in Europe, Germany is often viewed as the stalwart of the eurozone economy. Yet research group Sentix warned the country is “becoming the sick man of Europe and is weighing heavily on the region”. 

Findings from the Ifo Institute support this warning. A report suggests the number of German construction firms in financial difficulty doubled in July when compared to a month earlier. In addition, 19% of companies reported cancelled orders, against a long-run average of 3.1%, which could signal medium-term challenges. 

There was some positive news for the eurozone economy – in June it boasted a large trade surplus.

According to Eurostat, sharply falling imports from Russia and China led to a trade surplus of €23 billion (£19.7 billion) in June. Just a year earlier the economic region recorded a trade deficit of €27.1 billion (£18 billion).

Early in August, the decision to impose a windfall tax on banks in Italy led to stocks tumbling before the government watered down the announcement.

Facing accusations that banks were reaping billions of euros in extra profits thanks to rising interest rates, the Italian government approved a 40% windfall tax on the profits of banks. 

Analysts estimated the tax could mean banks would collectively have handed over more than €9 billion (£7.7 billion). The news sent bank shares tumbling – Intesa Sanpaolo, which is the largest bank in Italy, saw shares fall by 8.7%. 

As stock values fell, the government backtracked and said lenders would pay no more than 0.1% of their assets in tax, which analysts estimate will be just a fifth of the sum initially forecast. 

US

In an unexpected decision, credit rating agency Fitch downgraded US debt due to “erosion of governance”.

It led to all major US stock markets opening in the red after the announcement. The Nasdaq recorded the largest fall and was down by 1.86%.

The downgrade also had a knock-on effect on European shares. The FTSE 100 fell by 1.7%, and markets in Germany, Italy and France were similarly affected. 

While lower than other economies, inflation accelerated in the 12 months to July to 3.2%. To stabilise prices, the US central bank hiked interest rates to 5.5% – the highest level in 22 years. 

Data could indicate that business optimism is waning. Figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show firms added 187,000 jobs to the economy, which fell short of expectations. In 2022, the average monthly gain was 400,000. 

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What our clients say

Having dealt with various financial advisers in the past, both Gary and Kate give a far more personal service and explain things clearly. They take the time to understand what we want from financial planning and they have the knowledge to advise us in a variety of different aspects. Although we have only been clients from just before retirement, I would have no hesitation in recommending them to anyone of any age and we have absolutely no regrets in switching to Lifeplan.

Colin, Nottingham

A client since 2016

On my first visit to Lifeplan several years ago, Gary took lots of time to get to know my background, my financial objectives and me. There was never any sales push or persuasion to get my business. We’ve always discussed issues; Lifeplan give me options and I decide what to do. I don’t feel any pressure to do anything that I’m not comfortable with. I feel as though we have a personal relationship, rather than just being another business transaction. That's why I’m happy with Lifeplan’s guidance with my life savings.

Anthony, Northumberland

A client since 2014

We have been with Lifeplan for a few years now. Kate has been brilliant in helping us understand our level of risk and planning for retirement. Before we spoke to Kate, it was always something we would just say we’d get around to at some point! It’s really important to have a plan and I feel more secure about our finances now.

Kate, Gateshead

A client since 2015

I initially approached Lifeplan as my parents had used them in the past. I received excellent financial planning advice, and as I am still quite young and newly-qualified, this was invaluable. I also approached Lifeplan to help me find a suitable mortgage and again they were fantastic. They took a lot of pressure off me by dealing with lenders as well as solicitors. First class!

Jamie, Northumberland

A client since 2017

I would recommend Lifeplan to anyone, as they provide an excellent and honest service.

Philip, Newcastle Upon Tyne

A client since 2016

Initially we were unsure about contacting Lifeplan, as we were wary that any advice given may not be impartial or even to our benefit. We needn't have worried as we now have every confidence in the planning, investments as well as the will and trust Lifeplan helped us with. It is a great relief knowing we can trust the people dealing with our finances. We are always kept fully up to date and have annual meetings where everything is explained in clear and concise ways.

June, Northumberland

A client since 2016

I have more in my pot now than when I retired 11 years ago, even though I joined at the beginning of the banking crisis.”

Derek, Consett

A client since 2011

I have had nothing but the best advice from Kate Boon over the last 12 years, in relation to mortgages, investments and financial planning for later life. She’s always down to earth in her approach, but very knowledgeable and a real professional.

Irene, Hexham

A client since 2012

In the five years that Lifeplan has looked after our investments, we have received an excellent, friendly, professional service, which has given us very satisfactory returns on our savings.

Pauline, Lanchester

A client since 2011

Our family has worked with Gary and Kate for many years and have built up a good trusting working relationship with this professional, efficient and caring company. We feel that they always consider our specific financial needs and provide advice accordingly. We definitely feel we are in safe hands with Lifeplan.

Julie, Consett

A client since 2010

As retirement approached, I was uncertain how to proceed. Advice from Lifeplan set us on the right track and we are now enjoying a very comfortable lifestyle. Good advice was provided regarding our wills and Powers of Attorney. We appreciate the guidance given and feel happy and secure in our retirement.

Albion, Tyne and Wear

A client since 2015

Lifeplan is an approachable and plain-speaking business. They are always there to help and assist, as well as provide annual reviews of my current finances and what can be changed to benefit me in readiness for retirement.

Ian, Newcastle Upon Tyne

A client since 2011

Kate is my financial consultant and has put a lot of work into my investments recently, making it very clear how it has been invested and where. This appears to be honest, up-to-date advice from someone who clearly knows the markets. I receive a pleasant, friendly service, in a nice modern office also.

Andrew, Hexham

A client since 2015

Lifeplan provides a friendly, professional service at reasonable cost. They are very responsive to any request I make and keep my portfolio of investments in line with my ongoing requirements. In 12 years of using Lifeplan, I have never had cause for concern.

Rob, Newcastle Upon Tyne

A client since 2006

Gary and Kate have been excellent in understanding our needs and requirements and have given first class advice. They have helped with our financial planning and setting up a trust to ensure our wishes for the future will be met. Nothing is too much bother for them and they provide an excellent service. My wife and I would happily recommend them.

John, Newcastle Upon Tyne

A client since 2014

When I retired, I wanted my capital to work for me. I was looking for a reasonable but realistic return on investment, but without a high risk. Lifeplan have provided me with just that. I have an annual review, where we have a frank discussion about current arrangements and any changes that Lifeplan may recommend. There is no jargon and things are explained in an understandable way. Plus, they are thoroughly nice people.

Harry, Newcastle Upon Tyne

A client since 2015

I found Gary and Kate very easy to speak to. They listen to your concerns and wishes, then give you the best options on how to invest moving forward. Their choices are always explained to you in understandable terms.

Edward, Hexham

A client since 2014

We have always been given helpful advice in a most professional manner. Every detail was explained fully in a way that was easily understood. We would have no problem in recommending Lifeplan to anyone wishing to invest.

Lisa, Newcastle Upon Tyne

A client since 2011

I'd tried several advisers prior to being introduced to Gary and was not happy with their service. Gary was instrumental in organising our pension information, so that we could understand what we were paying in to and why. Sounds easy, but we have had three previous advisers from some of the largest banks that could not do this. Since meeting Gary, we have successfully transferred our pension fund and original property in to a new scheme. In addition to this, Gary has successfully helped our company purchase a new property through our pension.

Bruce, Tyne and Wear

A client since 2013

Gary sorted out my pension by tailoring it to my own specific requirements. Until then, it was with large organisations and I really felt out of control with it. He explained technical financial terms well and I felt that he was not happy until he knew I fully understood all aspects of the business. There was no pressure from him and I always felt very confident that he was doing the best he could do on my behalf. He is fully qualified, takes pride in his job and in my opinion is impeccably trustworthy. His team is also very efficient, keeping me advised on all aspects of our business.

Henry, County Durham

A client since 2009

I was looking for financial planning and not just financial advice. Gary explained options in an easily understandable way and offered an alternative way of looking at the impact on different financial models. Initial advice was exactly what I wanted, and I am satisfied that the options I have now chosen are based on sound advice. I have decided to become a long-term client. What myself and my wife wanted was someone whom we felt we could trust with giving impartial advice on our future financial situation, and this we feel we have achieved with Gary

Colin, Nottingham

A client since 2016

I was recently widowed and wanted to simplify my financial affairs for my children should anything happen to me. Gary was very understanding of my needs and dealt with me patiently and in a simple way. I believe the products he recommended will benefit me.

H Walker, Newcastle Upon Tyne

A client since 2016

I contacted Kate to review my pension arrangements, with a view to changing my then pension provider. She helped and advised me on what I currently had, and helped find something better for my current and future needs. Obviously, it’s too early to say, but Kate clearly explained and showed me on the software what my pension could be like when it comes to retirement under various scenarios.

Richard, County Durham

A client since 2008

Redundancy required a re-think of my finances and future planning. Gary set up an investment portfolio following a detailed discussion, including provision of advice that met our needs. I am very pleased with the overall return over the last six years, balanced against the level of risk we were prepared to take.

Brian, County Durham

A client since 2012

Gary has developed a structured plan to ensure our funds will last in retirement. We are now deciding when to retire or reduce to part-time employment.

K Walker, County Durham

A client since 2010

We made an appointment to discuss the remortgage of properties. Kate understood our requirements and personally sorted the process in a very professional way from the start to a successful conclusion. She dealt with all matters, no matter how small.

Jim, County Durham

A client since 2016

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